The Louisville Cardinals are 2-0 in two meetings with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons since joining the ACC. However, the Cardinals are 0-2 against the spread because they were favored by double digits and the Demon Deacons gave them two good games. Louisville, still in the chase for a spot in the College Football Playoff, will face a huge number when it hosts Wake Forest on Saturday night.
Point spread: The Cardinals opened as 33-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 52.4-16.7 Cardinals (College football picks on every game)
Why the Wake Forest Demon Deacons can cover the spread
Wake Forest snapped a two-game losing streak and became bowl-eligible for the first time since 2011 with last week’s 27-20 victory over Virginia. The Deacons spotted the Cavaliers an early touchdown and trailed 20-17 through three quarters. They then scored the last 10 points of the game, the final seven on an interception return for a touchdown with seven minutes to go, for the win and the cover as two-point favorites.
On the afternoon, Wake Forest outrushed Virginia 226-105 and won time of possession by a 33-27 split. The Deacons have now outrushed five of their last eight opponents, going 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in those games.
Wake Forest is also 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS this season on the road and 4-1 ATS its last five times out getting 20 or more points.
Why the Louisville Cardinals can cover the spread
Louisville bounced back from a lackluster performance against those same Cavaliers two weeks ago to defeat Boston College last week 52-7. The Cardinals took a 7-0 lead on a Lamar Jackson 69-yard touchdown bolt just over a minute into the game. They bumped that to 21-0 after one quarter and 38-0 at the half on their way to an easy cover as 25-point favorites.
For the day, Louisville outgained the Eagles 515-207 and outrushed them 210-57, even as the Cardinals eased up in the second half. And Jackson continued his march toward the Heisman Trophy podium at the PlayStation Theater by throwing for 231 yards and four scores and running for 185 and three more touchdowns. That gives Jackson 45 total touchdowns on the season.
Louisville has now outgained and outrushed every opponent this season, often by large margins.
Smart pick
Barring a near-miracle, the Cardinals are going to win this game. And for Louisville, chasing that CFP berth, style points still count, because it doesn’t look like it’ll catch Clemson in the ACC Atlantic race. But in anticipation of that, oddsmakers have posted a huge number on this game, probably inflated by at least a touchdown.
If Wake Forest can just run the ball a little and avoid giving up too many big plays, it stands a good chance of covering on the college football lines.
Betting trends
The total has gone over in five of Louisville’s last six games at home.
Louisville is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games at home after consecutive road games.
Wake Forest is 5-1 ATS in its last six games on the road against teams with winning records.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
