Utah is 4-0 in its last four meetings with new conference rival Colorado, but the Buffaloes are 4-0 against the spread, keeping each of those games close. Colorado wants to do more than just keep things close when it hosts the Utes in the regular-season finale for both teams Saturday night in Boulder.
Point spread: The Buffaloes opened as 11-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 41-27.9, Buffaloes (college football picks on every game)
Why the Utah Utes can cover the spread
Utah is looking to bounce back after falling to Oregon 30-28 last week. The Utes took a 7-0 lead four minutes into the game and led 14-3 late in the third quarter. With two minutes left, they led 28-24, but they lost on a 17-yard Ducks touchdown pass with two seconds remaining on the clock.
Utah posted a balanced 453 yards of offense on the day, including 218 on the ground, as running back Joe Williams continued his amazing comeback with his fifth straight 100-yard effort. But the Utes also failed on a 4th-and-1 situation at the Oregon 27-yard line early in the game and later lost a fumble from the Ducks’ 15-yard line, spoiling a pair of scoring chances.
Two weeks ago, Utah won at Arizona State, 49-26, easily covering at minus-four. The previous week, the Utes lost to Washington, 31-24, but covered as 10-point dogs. Just before that, they won at UCLA, 52-45, as three-point dogs. So Utah had covered three spreads in a row prior to last week.
Why the Colorado Buffaloes can cover the spread
The Buffaloes reached 9-2 on the season and 10-1 ATS with a 38-24 victory over Washington State last week. Colorado grabbed an early 7-0 lead less than five minutes into the game but trailed 24-21 late in the third quarter. The Buffaloes then scored the last 17 points of the game to secure the victory and the cover as six-point favorites.
On the day, Colorado outgained the Cougars by 141 yards, outrushed them by 121 and won time of possession by about a 34-26 split. So that’s five wins in a row for the Buffaloes, with four covers.
At 7-1 in conference play, Colorado sits just a win away from its first berth in the Pac-12 championship.
Smart pick
The Buffaloes are coming off the program’s biggest victory in who-knows-how-long, but that just brings into play the possibility of a letdown this week. It’s difficult to get up emotionally for two big games in a row. The Buffs have a lot to play for and might well still win this game straight up, but Utah hasn’t lost a game by more than one score since the middle of last season.
The smart money here at online sports betting sites takes the points.
Betting trends
Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five games against Colorado.
Colorado is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games.
The total has gone under in nine of Colorado’s last 12 games against its conference.
All college football betting lines and point-spread data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.
