The Carolina Panthers fell to 4-7 on Sunday courtesy a 35-32 loss to the Oakland Raiders. Sebastian Janikowski hit a field goal to break the tie with less than two minutes left, and the Raiders clinched the game on a last-minute sack of Cam Newton with Carolina in Oakland territory. It was a close loss for Carolina in a season filled with them — so much that the team is already making the wrong kind of history. (All stats via pro-football-reference.com.)
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A fast start … in terms of close losses
This was the Panthers' fifth loss by three points or fewer — a staggering and hard-luck total for a team that only has seven losses on the season. They're just the ninth team in NFL history to lose so many close games in their first 11 outings, and of those teams, only one (the 1995 Cincinnati Bengals) had as many wins as Carolina's four.
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Even the wins have been tight
Carolina's close losses: Denver (21-20), Tampa (17-14), New Orleans (41-38), Kansas City (23-20) and Oakland. Two of the Panthers' wins were by exactly three points, giving them seven games in 11 that could have swung on the leg of a kicker.
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Rare territory
Losing five games by that little is a rarity. Carolina is the 45th team to do it, which means it happens about six times a decade. Getting to more than five games — which Carolina will have opportunities to do in the next five weeks — is almost unheard of. Just seven teams have ever done that; six had six such losses, and the solo record holder — the 1994 Houston Oilers — had seven.
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It could be much worse
The big difference between Carolina and almost all of those teams is the record that came along with the narrow defeats. The aforementioned Oilers squad went 2-14. The 2000 Chargers, 2001 Panthers and 2007 Dolphins were 1-15. It makes sense — more losses means more opportunities for three-point losses. Only one team on that list of seven had more than five wins on the season. The 1981 Atlanta Falcons went 7-9, meaning two-thirds of their losses were by three points or fewer. Carolina has that beat at the moment: five of those losses in seven games is 71 percent.
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You're probably wondering: How does Jeff Fisher fit in?
Fun fact: The record-setting 1994 Oilers fired their coach midseason and promoted a defensive coordinator named Jeff Fisher. Jack Pardee started 1-9 and was canned, and Fisher came and finished 1-5. Pardee had five of the -3 losses. Fisher had two. It's so fitting. At least the uniforms looked sweet.
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The Saints, too, know how to lose closely
New Orleans is also flirting with the narrow shame of history, with four three-point (or fewer) losses on the season. No other team in the NFL has more than two.
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No excuses
Only four other teams coming off a Super Bowl appearance have ever had so many failures of close-game follow-up fortune — the Denver Broncos (1999), Baltimore Ravens (2002), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2003) and Pittsburgh Steelers (2009). All except the Steelers had extenuating circumstances. Denver was in its first year after John Elway, the Ravens rode a good defense with a bad quarterback to the Super Bowl in 2001 (it all evens out sometimes) and the Bucs were an average Super Bowl champion in an odd NFL year. Carolina? It has no excuses. And no, Panthers fans, injuries do not constitute extenuating circumstances. You know who has injuries? Everybody. The Patriots missed Tom Brady for four games, and Rob Gronkowski might as well be playing with crutches, and they're 9-2.
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Playoffs? Uh, no
Carolina is looking up at seven teams in the two-team race for the NFC wild card. Those teams are the Giants (8-3), Redskins (6-4-1), Vikings (6-5), Bucs (6-5), Eagles (5-5), Saints (5-6), Cardinals (4-6-1) and Packers (4-6). Excluding the four division leaders, that makes the Panthers ninth out of the 12 teams in the NFC. Long story short: They're not making the playoffs, and those five losses might not be the only reason. For all the talk about the Super Bowl curse, the last seven Super Bowl losers all made the playoffs the following year (though none repeated as conference champs). Carolina will break that string, becoming the first team since the 2008 Patriots to miss out on a conference title defense. (That was the year Tom Brady was injured, FWIW.)
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