Sam Craft/Associated Press
Texas A&M is 0-4 against the spread its last four times out. Mississippi State, meanwhile, hasn’t been much better, going 0-4-1 ATS over its last five games. Two teams inspiring little betting confidence as of late meet when the Aggies battle the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon in Starkville, Mississippi.
Point spread: The Aggies opened as 13-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 37.4-29.0 Aggies (college football picks on every game)
Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread
A&M bounced back from that beating at the hands of Alabama to get past New Mexico State last week 52-10. Unfortunately for Aggies financial backers, they were favored by 43 points. Texas A&M led 7-0 three minutes into the game, 24-0 before allowing the other Aggies to hit the board and didn’t let up until scoring for the last time with 10 minutes to go.
For the day, Texas A&M outgained New Mexico State 515-316, rushing for 233 yards.
Two weeks ago, the Aggies lost on the road in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, 33-14, but that final score was a bit misleading. Texas A&M led that game 14-13 well into the third quarter before giving up the final 20 points. And the Aggies would have covered the 18 points if not for an Alabama defensive score late in that third quarter.
Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread
MSU bounced back from an upset loss at Kentucky to beat Samford last week, 56-41. Unfortunately for Bulldogs backers, they were favored by 21 points. Mississippi State scored two minutes into the game against the other Bulldogs, had the spread covered at 49-26 late in the third quarter but eased up from there, missing out on the cash by one score.
On the day, Mississippi State produced 669 yards of total offense, as sophomore quarterback Nick Fitzgerald threw for 417 yards and five touchdowns and ran for 119 yards and two more scores.
Two weeks ago, the Bulldogs led the Wildcats in Lexington, 38-37, with a minute to go but lost on a 51-yard field goal at the buzzer. In fact, of MSU’s five losses this season, three have come by a total of six points, another in overtime.
Smart pick
Texas A&M received good news Monday with its No. 4 ranking in the first College Football Playoff poll of 2016, but sometimes something like that works to the detriment of a team, when the players start believing their press. And are the Aggies really the fourth-best team in the country? Also, Mississippi State is better that its record indicates. The best bet here is the Bulldogs, plus the points.
Betting trends
Mississippi State is 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS in its last five games after a win.
Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games at home.
Texas A&M is 1-5 ATS in its last six games in November.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
