San Diego State and Wyoming just played an absolute thriller on Nov. 19, a game that came down to a two-point conversion with no time left on the clock. The upstart Cowboys pulled off an upset that night, and they’re underdogs again for a rematch with the Aztecs in the Mountain West championship Saturday back on Wyoming’s home field in Laramie.
Point spread: The Aztecs opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 43.3-28.9, Aztecs (college football picks on every game)
Why the San Diego State Aztecs can cover the spread
Off at odds of 5-2 to repeat as Mountain West champions this season, San Diego State rode a six-game winning streak to a second straight West Division title.
The Aztecs actually became the first team in the country to clinch a division championship this season when they beat Hawaii 55-0 four weeks ago. They followed that up with an easy victory at Nevada, but then, perhaps a bit unfocused, lost their last two games to Wyoming and Colorado State.
Prior to the defeat against the Cowboys, the Aztecs had outgained six opponents in a row, and they outrushed every opponent this season. And in that loss to Wyoming, San Diego State pulled within a point at 34-33 on the last play of the game, then went for two and the win, only to have a pass knocked down.
Why the Wyoming Cowboys can cover the spread
The Cowboys are probably the most improbable division winner in college football this season. One year after going 2-10, off at upwards of 50-1 to win the Mountain Division this year, Wyoming used a five-game winning streak and upsets of the Aztecs and Boise State to earn its first-ever berth in the MWC title contest.
Last week, the Cowboys finished their regular season with a 56-35 loss at New Mexico, but that might be attributable to a letdown following their victory over San Diego State and the clinching of the division.
Before last week, Wyoming had outgained five of its previous six opponents and outrushed six of its previous seven.
Also, while that victory over San Diego State two weeks ago came down to the final play, Wyoming outplayed the Aztecs that day, outgaining them by almost 100 yards and dominating time of possession by a margin of about 37-23.
This game will be played at over 7,000 feet at War Memorial Stadium, and Wyoming is already 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home this season. However, San Diego State is 155 yards per game better on defense than the Cowboys. And for a game that might be played in tough conditions, the better defense is almost always the better bet.
The total has gone over in five of Wyoming’s last six games against San Diego State.
San Diego State is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games against its conference.
Wyoming is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine games against its conference.
All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the Odds Shark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.