Comments Off on Predicting where baseball’s 25 best free agents land this winter
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It feels like the Cubs' World Series championship parade just ended, but we're already into a new season, as Major League Baseball free agency started Monday.
The hot stove has been turned on, just in time for cooler temperatures, and on the burners are the goals, hopes and World Series chances of every team in baseball.
There are 139 free agents this winter, but we broke that list down into the 25 best and then made a way-too-early prediction on where they all land.
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25
Austin Jackson
OF – 30 .254/.318/.343 (54 games) Prediction: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox don't have many other options in the outfield — though they could move Adam Eaton back there and get a big bat corner outfielder — but Jackson did provide value before injuries derailed his season.
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24
Doug Fister
RHSP – 33 12-13, 4.64 ERA, 1.425 WHIP Prediction: San Diego Padres
Fister has struggled, so the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco should suit him. He's NL-only at this point.
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23
Michael Saunders
OF – 30
.253/.338/.478, 24 homers, 57 RBI
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
The All-Star and Canadian stays in Toronto, where he's adored by fans and will be a necessary piece for a team trying to make a postseason push again in 2017.
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22
Joaquin Benoit
RHRP – 39
2.81 ERA, 1.271 WHIP
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Bullpens win in the playoffs, and Benoit was fantastic for Toronto after he was acquired.
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21
Greg Holland
RHRP – 31
3.83 ERA, 32 saves, 1.455 WHIP in 2015
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Holland is coming off Tommy John surgery, but before that injury, he was one of the best closers in baseball. There's massive upside here, but it's a total crapshoot on who will land him — let's go with the big bank looking for a set-up arm.
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20
Bartolo Colon
RHSP – 44
15-8, 3.43 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Prediction: New York Mets
Hard to see him pitching anywhere else next year, but there are a lot of teams looking for fifth starters.
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19
Carlos Beltran
OF/DH – 40
.295/.337/.513, 29 homers, 93 RBI
Prediction: New York Yankees
Couldn't the now-baby Yankees use a veteran like him who can still produce?
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18
Neil Walker
2B – 31 .282/.347/.476, 23 homers, 55 RBI Prediction: New York Mets
Back surgery makes him a tough sell, but the Mets can't afford to lose him.
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17
Matt Wieters
C – 31
.243/.302/.409, 17 homers, 66 RBI
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
An All-Star, but it might be time to call it a career in Baltimore — he's been solid but never the superstar many imagined he might become.
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16
Josh Reddick
OF – 30
281/.345/.405, 10 homers, 37 RBI
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals
Didn't put up normal numbers last year, and didn't care much for the big market when he was traded to Los Angeles last year. St. Louis is a tremendous fit for him.
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15
Jeremy Hellickson
RHSP – 30
12-10, 3.71 ERA, 1.153 WHIP
Prediction: Texas Rangers
It was shocking he wasn't traded last season. The Rangers could use a player of his ilk in the rotation — a big problem is a propensity to give up the long ball, not a great thing in Texas. Still, the necessity is there and the market is weak.
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14
Jose Bautista
OF/DH – 36
.234/.366/.452, 22 homers, 69 RBI
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Joey Bats isn't going to find a robust market — he would be wise to slide into the full-time DH role in Toronto (more on that later).
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13
Mike Napoli
1B/DH – 35
.239/.335/.465, 34 homers, 101 RBI
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
The party should continue in 2017 and beyond. Too vital a performer and leader for the Tribe to let him walk.
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12
Wilson Ramos
C – 29
.307/.354/.496, 22 homers, 80 RBI
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
He was a sneaky MVP candidate last year, but he's already turned down a contract from the Nationals and his late-season knee injury might be a precursor to a move to the American League, where he can DH. A slide up the Beltway to Baltimore makes sense.
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11
Ivan Nova
RHSP – 30
12-8, 4.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Nova got a taste for the National League and had to like it. The Braves need to land at least one starting pitcher in free agency, are going to look to toss some money around, and Nova might be the best option available to a team that isn't necessarily a World Series contender today.
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10
Mark Trumbo
OF/DH – 31
.256/.316/.533, 47 homers, 108 RBI
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
The dude mashes 'taters. Would be a fit on any team in the Majors, as even National League teams would play him at first to get his bat in the lineup. But Baltimore is skating on thin ice and can't afford to let him leave. Much like Chris Davis, expect the O's to pay.
Was, without a doubt, awesome and dominant in the playoffs and a worthy All-Star during the regular season. He's also going into his age 37 year, has blister problems, and was pitching in independent ball recently. There's risk, but Miami probably won't look past the surprisingly low price tag.
He missed out on big bucks last year, moving to the outfield for a chance to play with the Rangers. He certainly made the most out of it. He's going to get paid, and Texas, understanding his versatility, is probably going to write the check, but don't count out him going to the absolute highest bidder.
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7
Dexter Fowler
OF – 31
.276/.393/.447, 13 homers, 48 RBI
Prediction: New York Mets
As he went, so did the Cubs, so it's hard to see him leaving Chicago, even if he would be blocking multiple young prospects. The Mets seem like the play here — Chicago has the cash but won't be able to outbid New York.
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6
Justin Turner
3B – 32 .275/.339/.493, 27 homers, 90 RBI Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Had a breakout year at age 31, so there's some wariness. Still, the Dodgers would be foolish to let their best righty bat walk.
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5
Mark Melancon
RHRP – 32
1.64 ERA, 47 saves, 0.897 WHIP
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs need a closer this offseason. There's not a lot of flash here, but he's as good as they come. He's probably not Chicago's first choice, though…
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4
Aroldis Chapman
LHRP – 29
1.55 ERA, 36 saves, 14 K/9
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
…that would be this man, who was critical to the Cubs' World Series win (that's still strange to type). But the Giants really, really, really need a closer and would be foolish to not write a blank check for one who, in the worst-case scenario, would be a totally dominant lefty specialist.
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3
Kenley Jansen
RHRP – 29
1.83 ERA, 47 saves, 13.6 K/9, 0.67 WHIP
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Was one of the best closers in baseball all season and was even better in the playoffs. The Dodgers aren't a cheap team, and he won't be cheap to keep, but it's a move they have to make.
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2
Edwin Encarnacion
DH/1B – 34
.263/.357/.529, 42 homers, 127 RBI
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Big Papi has already endorsed Encarnacion as his replacement in Boston. At this point, it's such an obvious move it seems wrong to predict it.
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1
Yoenis Cespedes
OF – 31
.280/.354/.530, 31 homers, 86 RBI
Prediction: Washington Nationals
The premier player on the market, Cespedes represents legitimacy or contention to almost any team in baseball. Few teams will not at least explore the possibility of handing him somewhere around $30 million a year. The Nationals need another bat to protect Bryce Harper in the lineup, and Cespedes adds the benefit in that signing him hurts an immediate rival. That would certainly help justify the cost.
