Predicting the 10 biggest MLB free-agent busts

This year's free-agent market is pretty weak compared to recent years. While there are a couple of solid All-Star-caliber players available, some of those players have serious potential to decline.

But every offseason we see teams overpay for free agents, and this year will be no different.

Here are 10 potential free-agent busts teams should be weary of this offseason.

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The market for Morales is limited, considering he's a 33-year-old DH with subpar defensive skills. He experienced a career revival in Kansas City — hitting .277 with 52 homers and an .821 OPS over the past two seasons — but he struggled to get it going the first half of 2016 and his inconsistency could easily translate to unreliability.

His strikeout rate has climbed and his walks have declined, meaning his plate discipline isn't what it used to be.

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Trumbo's MLB-leading 47 homers will have power-hitting hungry teams salivating. But his 2016 power surge came out of nowhere, as he hit just 22 homers (142 games) in 2015 and 14 (88 games) in 2014. His strikeout rate is alarming — his 170 K's were the 10th-most in MLB last season.

It's extremely unlikely that Trumbo will be able to recreate last year's career season, and regression is naturally expected — but the degree of that regression is unknown.

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The crop of free-agent pitchers is thin this year but pitching always comes at a premium, and that often means overpaying for second- and third-tier starters.

Hellickson, who is one of the top three free-agent starters available, received the qualifying offer ($17.2 million for 2017) from the Phillies. He'll likely reject it and hit the market in search of a multi-year deal — which could easily reach the four-year, $50 million-range. Not bad for a 29-year old back-end starter with a 3.90 career ERA. There's far more potential to disappoint here than there is to impress.

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Encarnacion is probably as close to a “sure thing” as you can get with this free-agent class, but he's also a prime example of the type of player who is often overpaid. The 33-year-old is best suited as a DH and if he gets the $20 million/year everyone is expecting, that would be a lot of money for a guy who can't play the field every day (who's not named David Ortiz).

Encarnacion hit 42 homers and led the American League with 127 RBI last season, but he did it in a contract year — something that is all too common in MLB, followed by a subsequent drop in performance. Not saying he'll be a complete bust, but after 12 years in the majors, a decline is certainly on the horizon.

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Talk about awful timing for an injury. Wilson Ramos was coming into his own in 2016 and seemed to be set to receive a one-year qualifying offer for $17.2 million at season's end. Then, the catcher tore his right ACL.

“All the medical reports say he could miss a couple months. So if he does accept the qualifying offer, you're paying a lot of money for a little bit of performance. That's what went into it,” GM Mike Rizzo told The Washington Post from the GM meetings.

Now, Ramos is a clear case of risk/reward. So, do you take a chance on a 29-year-old coming off a .307 season with 22 home runs and 80 RBI in 131 games — a career year? Or are you cautious of the fact that player is also coming off a severe knee injury. In this day and age, that's an expensive proposition … for any team.

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Once considered a five-tool prospect, Gomez has evolved into a journeyman. Ten years in, a .256 career average doesn't overpower you and comes out to about 100 hits a year. If you are looking for a spare outfielder, there are far better — and younger — options than Gomez, who will turn 31 on Dec. 4. He struck out 136 times in 118 games in 2016.

His best years were in Milwaukee in 2013 and '14. Why risk it at any price?

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Napoli is quite possibly the biggest red flag for free-agent shoppers. The 35-year-old had a career resurgence in Cleveland this past year and as the clubhouse veteran/cleanup hitter, he helped lead the Indians to the World Series.

Sure, he hit 34 dingers, raked in 101 RBI and had an .800 OPS but his home/road splits make those number look very suspect — 22/12 homers, 71/30 RBI, .281/.198 BA, .958 /.643 OPS. And then there's the strikeouts, 194, which were the third-most in all of baseball.

A quick glance at the numbers says Napoli had a career year in 2016. And if you dig a little deeper, it's easy to understand why the Indians chose not extend the qualifying offer of $17.2 million to Nap.

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Cespedes will fetch a nine-figure deal this offseason. However, big-money contracts come with lofty expectations, and he will be expected to repeat the 30-plus homer season he's coming off of, though it was only the second time in his career he reached that homer plateau.

Cespedes is coming off a solid year — .280 BA, 31 homers, 86 RBI in 132 games — but don't discount the idea of inflated numbers in a contract year.

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Melancon has been a lockdown closer for the past four seasons –posting a 1.80 ERA over 290 innings from 2013-16 — but relief pitchers can be so upand down from year to year.

He's the third-best relief pitcher on the open market next to Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, who will both make history with reliever contracts that could reach the $100 million mark. This will cause teams to make irrational offers to guys like Melancon. And as history has taught us, teams that pay steep prices for “proven closers” almost always get burned.

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Once regarded as one of the best sluggers in baseball, Bautista's brand took a huge hit over the past year thanks to multiple injuries, a decline in power and glaring defensive missteps. He only played in 116 games last season due to knee and toe injuries, causing his offensive totals to drop (his OPS went from .913 to .817).

Bautista, who just turned 36, is quickly moving into the “injury-prone, aging outfielder” category, and that might be enough to scare teams away from signing him to a long-term deal.

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