Mississippi and Texas A&M are 2-2 in four meetings since the Aggies joined the SEC five years ago, but the Rebels are 4-0 against the spread over that span, covering three times as underdogs. The Rebels are underdogs again for a matchup between two teams now playing backup quarterbacks Saturday night in College Station.
Point spread: The Aggies opened as 11-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 37.8-36.2 Aggies (College football picks on every game)
Why the Ole Miss Rebels can cover the spread
Ole Miss just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 37-27 victory last week over Georgia Southern. The Rebels actually trailed the Eagles 21-10 early in the second quarter, then used a 21-0 run to take a 10-point lead into halftime, and hung on from there.
Mississippi only held the ball for 24 minutes on the day, and still outgained GSU 441-401. In fact, the Rebels have outgained six of their last eight opponents, even while playing one of the five toughest schedules in the country.
At 4-5 overall Ole Miss needs two wins in its last three games to extend a four-season bowl streak.
Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread
The Aggies were the No. 4 team in the first College Football Playoff rankings but fell last week at Mississippi State 35-28. Texas A&M gave up a long touchdown run three minutes into the game, trailed 28-7 in the second quarter, rallied to within seven points in the fourth quarter but could get no closer.
Along the way the Aggies lost quarterback Trevor Knight to a shoulder injury, but junior backup Jake Hubenak came in and hit on 11 of 17 throws for 222 yards and two touchdowns against one desperation-time interception. Sophomore wide receiver Christian Kirk caught seven of those balls for 144 yards and a touchdown, and returned a punt 93 yards for another score, his third return touchdown in the last two games.
With two conference losses, Texas A&M is probably out of the running in the SEC West, but it still has a shot at double-digit victories, and perhaps a New Year’s Day bowl berth.
Texas A&M is without Knight, while Ole Miss is without quarterback Chad Kelly, who’s down with an injury knee. But the Aggies still own edges in the running games and on defense. So the smart money here takes Texas A&M.
Mississippi is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against Texas A&M.
The total has gone UNDER in three of Mississippi’s last four games against Texas A&M.
Texas A&M is 0-5 ATS in its last five games.
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