Darron Cummings/Associated Press
Navy pulled off three upsets of Notre Dame over a four-season period from 2007-2010, but the Fighting Irish have regained control of this series, winning the last five meetings straight up and going 3-2 against the spread. If Notre Dame wants to play in a bowl this season, it had better run that streak to six when it meets the Midshipmen on Saturday at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.
Point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.4-31.16, Midshipmen (College football picks on every game)
Why Notre Dame can cover the spread
The Irish snapped a two-game losing slide with a 30-27 victory over Miami (Florida) last week. Notre Dame jumped out to a 20-0 lead on the Hurricanes, fell down 27-20 midway through the fourth quarter but scored the last 10 points of the game to escape with the victory and a cover as a two-point favorite.
On the day, the Irish outgained Miami 411-306, outrushed the Hurricanes 148-18 but gave up another non-offensive score, the third straight game they’ve done so. Three weeks ago, Notre Dame lost to Stanford 17-10, giving the Cardinal nine points on an interception return and a safety, and before that, the Irish lost in the rain at North Carolina State 10-3 on a return for a touchdown off a blocked punt in the fourth quarter.
At 3-5, Notre Dame needs three wins in its last four games to make a bowl this season.
Why Navy can cover the spread
Navy was 5-1 on the season and 4-1-1 ATS, but it lost last week at South Florida 52-45. The Midshipmen fell down to the Bulls 28-0 in the first quarter and trailed by 31 late in the third quarter, but they pulled to within one point of a push ATS as six-point dogs with a touchdown on the final play of the game. Unfortunately for Navy bettors, the team didn’t kick the extra point, with the Midshipmen also failing on three two-point conversion attempts during the game.
Navy finished with 616 yards of offense—317 on the ground and 299 through the air—although most of that came in come-from-behind mode. Two weeks ago, the Midshipmen beat Memphis 42-28, and prior to that, they upset Houston 46-40. As a result, they are averaging 44.3 points over their last three games.
Smart pick
The Irish have won five straight in this series, but Navy has hit the 300-yard mark in rushing the last three meetings, covering twice. If the Midshipmen can get that ground game going again Saturday, they won’t just cover—they might win outright.
Betting trends
The total has gone over in Notre Dame’s last six games against Navy.
Navy is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games in November.
Notre Dame is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games in Week 10.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
