Nebraska is 3-2 outright in five meetings with Iowa since joining the Big Ten five years ago, but the Hawkeyes are 3-1 against the spread over the last four meetings with a win/cover in Lincoln last year. The Cornhuskers hope to return the favor and stake a claim on a division title when they visit Kinnick Stadium on Friday afternoon.
Point spread: The Hawkeyes opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.1-25.6 Cornhuskers (College football picks on every game)
Why the Nebraska Cornhuskers can cover the spread
Nebraska is 2-0 since that debacle at Ohio State after beating Maryland last week 28-7. The Cornhuskers took a 7-0 lead five minutes into the game on a Terrell Newby touchdown run, stretched that to 14-0 on another Newby score five minutes later and led 21-0 at the half. Nebraska then expanded its advantage to 28-0 on another Newby touchdown late in the third quarter, on its way toward a cover as a 14-point favorite.
Playing with their backup quarterback, the Cornhuskers outgained the Terrapins 401-207. And 92 of Maryland’s yards came on one play. Nebraska also won the ground battle 181-11 and dominated time of possession by a 39-21 split.
Two weeks ago the Cornhuskers beat Minnesota 24-17, pushing a seven-point spread.
At 6-2 in conference play, Nebraska is tied for the lead in the Big Ten West with Wisconsin, but the Badgers own the tiebreaker on the Cornhuskers. So Big Red needs a victory and a Wisconsin loss to Minnesota on Saturday to win the division.
Why the Iowa Hawkeyes can cover the spread
Iowa also owns a two-game winning streak after blanking Illinois last week 28-0. The Hawkeyes hit the board first on a 55-yard punt return for a score by Riley McCarron late in the second quarter, pushed that to 14-0 midway through the third then secured the victory and the cover as eight-point road favorites with a pair of fourth-quarter scores.
On a windy day in Champaign, Iowa outgained the Illini 342-198 and outrushed them 262-61, as senior running back LeShun Daniels put on his best performance of the season, rushing 26 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns.
Two weeks ago the Hawkeyes pulled one of the stunners of this college football season so far, upsetting Michigan 14-13 on a field goal at the buzzer.
At 7-4 overall, 5-3 in Big Ten play, Iowa is headed to a bowl for the fourth straight season. And while they can’t win a division title, the Hawkeyes can still finish in a tie for first place in the Big Ten West.
Smart pick
Nebraska could be without its top two quarterbacks, as both Armstrong and Ryker Fyfe deal with injuries. Still, the Cornhuskers own advantages in the running game and on defense, and circumstances might reduce the need to throw the ball. Nebraska can win ugly, and might just do that in this spot.
Betting trends
Nebraska is 1-3 ATS in its last four games against Iowa.
Iowa is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home.
The total has gone under in six of Iowa’s last eight games after a win.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
