Alabama owns eight straight victories in the rivalry with Mississippi State, but thanks to the large spreads it’s faced, it’s only covered two of the last five meetings. The Tide are favored by a huge number for Saturday afternoon’s battle with the Bulldogs in Tuscaloosa.
Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 28.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 48.6-21.8 Crimson Tide (College football picks on every game)
Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread
MSU just knocked off the team that came in at No. 4 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, upsetting Texas A&M on Saturday 35-28. The Bulldogs, as 10-point underdogs, grabbed a 7-0 lead three minutes into the game on a 74-yard touchdown run by quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, pushed that advantage to 28-7 in the second quarter and hung on from there.
On the day, Mississippi State outgained the Aggies 574-382, outrushed them 365-117 and dominated time of possession by a 37-23 margin. The sophomore Fitzgerald, in his bid to replace the departed Dak Prescott, threw for two scores and ran for two more, and he has now accounted for 24 touchdowns this season, including eight on the ground in just the last four games.
At 4-5 overall, with three losses coming by a total of six points, the Bulldogs need two wins in their last three games to make a bowl.
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread
Alabama just continues to win games and cover spreads, no matter the opponent or the venue. The Tide are now 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS on the season after blanking what was a hot LSU team in Baton Rouge on Saturday night 10-0. That game went scoreless into the fourth quarter, until Alabama finally hit the board on Jalen Hurts’ 21-yard scoring jaunt. Later in the fourth, much to the delight of their financial backers, the Tide added a field goal and hung on for the cover as seven-point favorites.
The score may have been close, but Alabama really outplayed the Tigers, winning total yardage by a 323-125 margin and outrushing LSU 216-33. Hurts ran the ball for 114 yards, while the Tide defense stuffed Tigers running back Leonard Fournette to the tune of just 35 yards on 17 carries.
Alabama is now 4-0 ATS over its last four games, and that’s a neat trick for a team that’s favored by so much so often.
Smart pick
Alabama just goes about winning and covering in a business-like manner, while Mississippi State comes off a big effort last week and could be ripe for a letdown. Fitzgerald is a talent, but he can’t do it alone. He’s also prone to throwing a pick here and there, and the Tide defense is almost good for a touchdown a week these days. The smart money at sports betting sites backs Alabama.
Betting trends
Mississippi State is 0-8 SU in its last eight games against Alabama.
Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six games at home.
The total has gone under in six of Alabama’s last seven games in Week 11.
All college football betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.
