Wisconsin absolutely owns the recent rivalry with Minnesota, winning the last 12 meetings in a row. But the Golden Gophers, in keeping many of those games close, are 6-3 against the spread over the last nine meetings.
The Badgers can claim a division title and retain possession of Paul Bunyan’s Axe if they can get by the Gophers on Saturday afternoon at Camp Randall Stadium.
Point spread: The Badgers opened as 14-point favorites.
Odds Shark computer pick: 32.4 Badgers, 23.8 Golden Gophers (College football picks on every game)
Why the Minnesota Golden Gophers can cover the spread
UM is 5-1 over its last six games after knocking off Northwestern last week 29-12. The Gophers drove 80 yards to a touchdown on the opening possession of the game, led 12-0 at the half and hung on from there, winning outright as one-point home dogs.
Minnesota out-rushed the Wildcats 131-63, as the Gophers defense recorded seven sacks on the day. Minnesota also stuffed Northwestern twice on fourth-down attempts inside the red zone.
The Gophers lost a tough game two weeks ago at Nebraska 24-17, but before that, they had won four in a row, hitting the 30-point mark in each of those games.
At 8-3 overall, 5-3 in Big Ten play, Minnesota is bowl-bound for the fifth year in a row, and while it can’t win a division title, it can finish in a tie for first place. On top of that, though, the Gophers would surely love to spoil Wisconsin’s chances and get their hands on that Axe.
Why the Wisconsin Badgers can cover the spread
The Badgers own a five-game winning streak, and seven covers in their last eight games, after pounding Purdue last week 49-20. Wisconsin trailed the Boilermakers 3-0 after one quarter, then scored five touchdowns in less than eight minutes of the second quarter to take control on their way to a cover as a 27-point favorite.
UW out-gained Purdue 412-293, out-rushed the Boilers 221-71 and dominated time of possession by a 38-22 margin.
Badgers running back Corey Clement hit the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in the last six games, and quarterbacks Bart Houston and Alex Hornibrook hit on 12 of 15 throws for 191 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
At 6-2 in conference play, the Badgers are tied with Nebraska for first place in the Big Ten West. But Wisconsin also owns the tiebreaker on the Cornhuskers, so a victory on Saturday gets the Badgers back to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Smart pick
Wisconsin has out-rushed every Big Ten opponent this season except one, but Minnesota has out-rushed every conference foe but two. And the spread on this game is probably inflated a few points toward the home team.
The Badgers are rolling and should win this game outright, but the smart money grabs the points with the Gophers.
Betting trends
- The total has gone over in 14 of Minnesota’s last 16 games against Wisconsin.
- Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against its conference.
- Minnesota is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games in November.
All betting information courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, Odds Shark on YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
