Arkansas holds a lead in the recent rivalry with LSU, winning five of the last nine meetings straight up, including the last two, and going 8-1 against the spread over that span. In the annual Battle for the Golden Boot, the Razorbacks will tangle with the Tigers on Saturday night in Fayetteville.
Point spread: The Tigers opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 37.0-25.1, Tigers (College football picks on every game)
Why LSU can cover the spread
LSU was 3-0 both SU and ATS under interim head coach Ed Orgeron but lost a tough one at home last week to top-ranked Alabama 10-0. The Tigers, as seven-point home dogs against the best team in college football, battled the Tide to a 0-0 tie into the fourth quarter before eventually giving way.
They were still in it, down just 7-0, until Alabama kicked an insurance field goal with just under three minutes to go. LSU came up dry on offense against that terrific Tide defense, but the Tigers defense limited Alabama to a season-low 323 total yards.
Prior to last week, LSU was averaging 536 yards and 41.7 points per game since making the change at head coach. At 5-3, the Tigers are still one win away from bowl eligibility.
Why Arkansas can cover the spread
The Hogs recovered from that embarrassing loss to Auburn three weeks ago, beating Florida last week 31-10 as three-point home dogs. Arkansas took a 7-0 lead three minutes into the game on an interception return for a score, pushed that to 21-7 at the half and then finished off the Gators on Rawleigh Williams’ 41-yard touchdown bolt with just over five minutes to go.
On the afternoon, the Razorbacks outgained Florida 466-241, outrushed the Gators by a lopsided 223-12 margin and dominated time of possession by a 39:21-20:39 split. Williams ended up with 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns, and the Arkansas defense held the Florida offense out of the end zone all day.
With the victory, the Hogs are now bowl-eligible for the third straight season.
Smart pick
Arkansas is coming off perhaps its best performance of the season, while LSU is coming off a downer against Alabama. But in college football, what’s up one week is often down the next and vice versa.
Also, the Tigers’ three losses this season have come by a total of 17 points against three good teams in Wisconsin, Auburn and Alabama, while each of the Hogs’ three defeats has come by at least 19 points. The smart money here on the betting lines likes LSU.
Betting trends
LSU is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games against Arkansas.
The total has gone under in three of LSU’s last four games against Arkansas.
Arkansas is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games at home against teams with winning records.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
