Ryan M. Kelly/Associated Press
Louisville started this season by covering three spreads in a row. Since then, as those spreads have ballooned, the Cardinals are just 1-3-1 ATS. For the second week in a row Louisville will play as a big road favorite when it battles Boston College on Saturday afternoon up in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.
Point spread: The Cardinals opened as 24.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks Odds Shark monitors. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick (via Odds Shark computer): 47.9-15.7 Cardinals (college football picks on every game)
Why the Louisville Cardinals can cover the spread
The Cardinals just escaped an upset bid from Virginia last week, coming from behind late to beat the Cavaliers 32-25 in Charlottesville. Louisville, looking lethargic, trailed Virginia 17-7 in the third quarter, rallied to take a 24-17 lead, fell down 25-24 with two minutes to go but won it on a Lamar Jackson-to-Jaylen Smith 29-yard touchdown connection with just 13 seconds left.
On the day the Cardinals outgained the Cavs 508-322, as Jackson threw for 361 yards, ran for 88 more and accounted for four touchdowns, giving him 38 on the season. Louisville has now outgained and outrushed every opponent this season, including Clemson.
Why the Boston College Eagles can cover the spread
The Eagles just stopped a two-game losing streak, and a 12-game conference losing slide, with a 21-14 upset of North Carolina State in Raleigh last week. Boston College, as a 16-point underdog, led the Wolfpack 10-7 at the half, fell down 14-13 midway through the third quarter, took the lead for good on a halfback-option touchdown pass with five minutes to go and then made an interception in the end zone to secure the victory.
For the day, Boston College outgained North Carolina State 386-338, outrushed the Wolfpack 168-31 and won time of possession by a 36-24 margin. The Eagles have now outrushed three of their five ACC opponents this season.
Smart pick
Boston College is coming off an upset victory on the road, while Louisville is coming off a lackluster performance against a lesser foe. But in college football, what’s hot one week is cold the next, and vice versa.
Also, the Cardinals have already won five times this season by 30 points or more, while the Eagles have lost twice by 40 or more. And Jackson can never have enough highlights to enhance his Heisman chances. The smart money here lies with Louisville.
Betting trends
Boston College is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games in Week 10.
The total has gone over in Louisville’s last five games in Week 10.
Louisville is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line- movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
