
The free-agent market, compared to most years, is not strong. The pace of signings, never quick to begin with, could lag even more this off-season.
Teams not only will explore trades, but also wait for a new collective-bargaining agreement; high-revenue clubs might refrain from spending big until they know what the new luxury-tax threshold and penalties will be.
That said, the best free agents eventually will sign, as they always do.
Here are my top 10:
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Yoenis Cespedes
A difference-maker offensively, but it’s his defensive ability, particularly in left field, that gives him the edge over Edwin Encarnacion, who is a first baseman/DH.
One quibble: Cespedes’ 132 games last season marked his second-lowest total since arriving in the majors in 2012. He will play next season at 31, so a long-term deal likely will include the start of his decline phase.
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Edwin Encarnacion
Only one player has hit more home runs than Encarnacion over the last five seasons — Chris Davis.
His age is a concern — Encarnacion turns 34 on Jan. 7 — but can’t you just see Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski making one of his patented quick strikes to secure a replacement for David Ortiz?
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Aroldis Chapman
It’s unlikely that suitors will be deterred by his domestic-violence suspension or somewhat inconsistent postseason.
Chapman, who will be 29 next season, still figures to get more than the other top closer on the market, Kenley Jansen — he’s left-handed and six months younger than Jansen, plus a harder thrower with a longer track record.
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Kenley Jansen
Uh, he’s pretty good, too –- or did you miss his 104 strikeouts, 11 walks and 1.83 ERA during the regular season?
Jansen’s selflessness and performance during the postseason only will enhance his value.
Justin Turner
Might be ranking him too high, considering that he is about to turn 32 and never had more than 16 homers or 60 RBIs in a season until 2016.
Turner, however, is a top performer at a position of need for many clubs, and the next-best free-agent third baseman is Luis Valbuena.
The Dodgers value Turner’s leadership; other clubs will, too.
Dexter Fowler
The Cubs will stick him with a second straight qualifying offer, but Fowler will not linger on the market until February this time.
Fowler, who will play next season at 31, is coming off a career-best .393 on-base percentage, and his defensive metrics in center field improved after he began playing deeper this season.
Cubs manager Joe Maddon would tell Fowler, “you go, we go.” Fowler also ignited the team off the field. As Jason Heyward put it, “His personality set off the whole thing.”
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Ian Desmond
This year’s Ben Zobrist?
Desmond transitioned from shortstop to the outfield last season, playing both center and left. He also believes he can be an above-average defender at second and third, sources say.
The only rap on his 2016 season is that he had an .899 OPS before the All-Star Game and a .630 OPS after it.
Mark Trumbo
You know the negative — the .303 career on-base percentage, the below-average defense in the outfield (but not necessarily at first base).
Well, Trumbo led the majors with 47 homers last season. Some team will pay for that, though the expected qualifying offer from the Orioles might hurt his cause.
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Rich Hill
Any team interested in Hill must assume that he might be good for only 120 innings per season.
Hill also will pitch next season at 37, so it might be difficult for him to match J.A. Happ’s three-year, $36 million free-agent contract from last winter.
Then again, considering the meager list of free-agent starting pitchers, maybe not.
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Mark Melancon
He will pitch next season at 32, so he’s significantly older than both Chapman and Jansen.
Still, Melancon has been remarkably consistent the past four years, converting 91 percent of his save chances and producing a 1.80 ERA.
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