Not too long ago TCU owned a 14-game home winning streak, which included an 11-3 run against the spread. But suddenly the magic is gone, and the Frogs are just 2-4 straight up and 0-6 ATS their last six times out at Amon Carter Stadium. TCU hosts Kansas State in the regular-season finale for both teams Saturday afternoon.
Point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.9-30.5 Wildcats (College football picks on every game)
Why the Kansas State Wildcats can cover the spread
Kansas State picked up its fourth victory in its last five games last week, beating Kansas in the Sunflower Showdown, 34-19. The Wildcats gave up an early Jayhawks field goal, then scored the next 27 points of the game to take control. Kansas State, a 24-point favorite, had the spread covered with a 34-9 lead early in the fourth quarter, but eased up and gave up the last 10 points.
On the day the Wildcats outrushed Kansas 342-101 and held a 36-24 advantage in time of possession. Kansas State has now outrushed each of its last five opponents by an average of 147 yards per game.
At 7-4 overall, 3-2 ATS as underdogs, the Wildcats are headed to a bowl for the seventh straight season.
Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread
The Frogs bounced back from that bad home loss to Oklahoma State two weeks ago to win at Texas last week 31-9, putting the finishing touches on the Charlie Strong era in Austin. TCU grabbed a 7-0 lead on the Longhorns five minutes into the game, allowed Texas to pull within 10-9 early in the third quarter, then ended with a 21-0 run to win outright as a three-point dog on the road.
On the afternoon the Frogs put up 487 yards on the Longhorns defense, including 309 on the ground. TCU has now outgained and outrushed three of its last four opponents.
At 6-5 the Frogs are bowl-eligible for the third straight season.
Smart pick
These teams look evenly matched, right down to the banged-up starting quarterbacks. But the spread seems to indicate TCU’s victory over Texas still rings loudly in the ears of the oddsmakers. That’s why the value in this spot at online betting sites resides with Kansas State, plus the points.
Betting trends
The total has gone over in Kansas State’s last three games against TCU.
TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last six games at home.
TCU is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games against its conference.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
