Mark Wallheiser/Associated Press
Florida State is 7-2 in its last nine meetings with North Carolina State, but the Wolfpack, playing as dogs each time out, are 7-2 against the spread during that span in this series. North Carolina State will play as a home dog when it hosts Florida State on Saturday night in Raleigh.
Point spread: The Seminoles opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.4-30.2 Seminoles (college football picks on every game).
Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread
FSU just had a two-game winning streak snapped by a 37-34 loss to Clemson last week but hung on for the cover as a five-point underdog. The Seminoles spotted the Tigers the first 14 points of the game, rallied to lead 34-29 with just over three minutes to go but gave up a Deshaun Watson touchdown pass to fall behind. Florida State then reached the Clemson 34-yard line in the final minute, but two penalties and two sacks killed the comeback.
On the evening, Florida State produced 449 yards of offense and outrushed Clemson 163-133, as running back Dalvin Cook produced 169 yards on just 19 carries, four of those for touchdowns. His total would have been even higher if not for a questionable penalty during a long Cook run at a key moment in the fourth quarter.
Florida State is now out of contention at 5-3, but considering one of its other losses came on a 54-yard field goal at the buzzer against North Carolina, the Seminoles realistically are only about two plays away from being 7-1 and ranked in the Top 10.
Why the NC State Wolfpack can cover the spread
The Wolfpack had won three games in a row but have now lost three straight following last week’s 21-14 decision against Boston College. North Carolina State took a 14-13 lead midway through the third quarter but gave up a score on a halfback option play with five minutes to go to fall behind.
The Wolfpack then drove to a 1st-and-goal at the Eagles 2-yard line, but quarterback Ryan Finley, who threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns on the day, tossed an interception in the end zone with a little over a minute left, ending the rally.
Two weeks ago, North Carolina State got blown out by Louisville, but just prior to that, the Wolfpack should have beaten undefeated Clemson at Death Valley. Unfortunately, they missed a field goal at the end of regulation and lost in overtime 24-17.
Smart pick
Florida State is just 2-7 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series, but it was also favored by at least double digits in seven of those games. Saturday’s spread is the lowest the Seminoles have faced in this series since 2010. FSU is down to playing for pride, but in this spot, that’s probably enough.
Betting trends
Florida State is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games against North Carolina State.
North Carolina State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games in Week 10.
Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games in November.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
