The road team is 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread over the last five Sunshine State showdowns between Florida and Florida State. That trend would seem to bode well for the Gators heading into Saturday night’s tussle with the Seminoles in Tallahassee.
Point spread: The Seminoles opened as five-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.2-33.0 Gators (College football picks on every game)
Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread
Florida just won the SEC East for the second straight season by upsetting LSU in Baton Rouge last week 16-10. The Gators spotted the Tigers an early 7-0 advantage, rallied to lead 16-10 late, then secured the victory with a goal-line stand in the final seconds, stuffing LSU ball-carriers on third and fourth down from the 1-yard line.
The Tigers outplayed Florida on the stat sheet, but it was the Gators who came up with the big plays. They recovered an LSU fumble deep in their own red zone and put on an earlier goal-line stand that resulted in both a botched Tigers field goal and a 98-yard Austin Appleby-to-Tyrie Cleveland touchdown connection. So Florida is now 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS over its last six games.
After going 6-2 in conference play, the Gators are headed for a battle with top-ranked Alabama in the SEC Championship Game next week.
Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread
FSU carries a three-game winning streak into this week, following a 45-14 victory up in Syracuse last week. The Seminoles jumped out to a 7-0 lead four minutes into the game, led 21-0 before allowing the Orange to hit the board and cruised from there on their way to a cover as 23-point favorites.
Florida State outgained Syracuse 654-233 and won time of possession by a 35-25 margin. Freshman quarterback Deondre Francois threw for 315 yards and two touchdowns, while running back Dalvin Cook ran for 225 yards and four scores. And the defense recorded eight sacks and two interceptions.
Two weeks ago the Seminoles bombed Boston College 45-7, so they’ve won their last two games by a combined score of 90-21.
With three losses on the season, Florida State is out of the running for anything important, but it is headed to a bowl for the 35th consecutive season.
Smart pick
Florida State has outgained six of its last eight opponents, and Francois is emerging as a bright, young talent at quarterback. Meanwhile, Florida has been outgained in four of its last seven games. The smart money here at online sports betting sites sides with the Seminoles.
Betting trends
The total has gone under in seven of Florida’s last nine games on the road against Florida State.
The visiting team is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five games in this matchup.
Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
