College Football Picks Week 14: Vegas Odds and Predictions for Top 25 Games

While every week of the college football season matters, Week 14 is the one that will truly decide the fate of a lot of teams across the country.

Between the conference title games and final regular-season battles, this will be the last opportunity for each team to present its case to the College Football Playoff committee. More than four squads believe they are deserving, but they will need to prove it on the field.

What the weekend lacks in quantity it makes up for in quality with several excellent games we can’t wait to watch.

        

Notable Games

Washington vs. Colorado

A lot has been made of Washington’s breakthrough season, turning into a national title contender seemingly out of nowhere. Of course, the squad was ranked No. 14 in the preseason Associated Press poll with a lot of talent on the roster.

Conversely, Colorado is coming off a 4-9 season in 2015, and it is now one game away from a Pac-12 Championship. Ted Miller of ESPN.com described the effort from this team:

Colorado's turnaround is not only 1 of best stories in college football, it's one of best I've witnessed in 2 decades of covering the sport

— Ted Miller (@TedMillerRK) November 27, 2016

The Buffaloes haven’t lit up the scoreboard the way Washington has this season, but the defense has played well all year. Five teams failed to top 10 points against this unit, and no one has scored more than 24 points since September.

Jake Browning has been a star for the Huskies with 40 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions this season, but Colorado’s pass defense will help keep him relatively in check. If the underdogs can run the ball and control the clock, they can pull out an upset win on a neutral field.

Prediction: Colorado 28, Washington 27

           

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are always ready to battle each year as if their seasons are on the line, whether the game means anything or not. This year’s Bedlam matchup will be as good as ever while serving as the de facto Big 12 title game.

The Sooners got off to a terrible start to the season with losses to Houston and Ohio State, but they have powered through the Big 12 with eight straight wins. The offense has been nearly unstoppable, averaging 49 points per game in this stretch behind the play of red-hot quarterback Baker Mayfield.

With Dede Westbrook, Joe Mixon and others all making plays, Oklahoma has as good of an offense as anyone in the nation.

With that said, Oklahoma State will not go away quietly. Quarterback Mason Rudolph ranks eighth in the country with 3,591 passing yards, and the air attack has helped the Cowboys win seven games in a row. If not for a questionable loss to Central Michigan earlier in the year, this team could be contending for a playoff spot this week.

This will almost certainly be a high-scoring battle with the way each defense has struggled at times, although Oklahoma will do just enough to come away with a win. 

Prediction: Oklahoma 45, Oklahoma State 38

          

Alabama vs. Florida

With so much room for debate about the rankings, there is no question which team deserves to be No. 1. Alabama is the only undefeated team from a Power Five conference and has simply dominated some of the best teams in college football.

The most impressive aspect of the recent run is the play of the defense, which ranks first in the country with just 11.4 points allowed per game. The unit hasn’t allowed a touchdown in the past four games.

Despite the success, head coach Nick Saban won’t allow his team to get overconfident, per Paul Myerberg of USA Today:

The legacy of our team still lies ahead, in terms of what they can accomplished and what they can do. There’s a lot more out there for this team in terms of an SEC championship, which we still hold in very high esteem. That’s our next focus and that’s the next thing that we’re going to focus on. And what happens from there happens from there.

Although Alabama might not need the SEC title to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff, the Crimson Tide are too good to lose.

With that said, they don’t need to run up the score to impress committee members like some other teams around the nation. Once Alabama builds a lead, expect it to try to run out the clock and earn an easy win.

Florida plays good enough defense to at least cover the spread, even if the Gators are overmatched.

Prediction: Alabama 24, Florida 6

           

Clemson vs. Virginia Tech

The year hasn’t gone quite as smoothly as expected for Clemson. With a talented defensive roster and arguably the top returning quarterback in college football in Deshaun Watson, the Tigers were expected to cruise to another ACC title and an appearance in the playoff.

Although one more win will help reach those goals, the ride was a difficult one. In addition to the disappointing home loss to Pittsburgh, the squad also barely escaped games against Florida State, Louisville and Auburn as well as North Carolina State and Troy.

However, Watson is finally starting to play to his ability, scoring nine touchdowns in the last two games (including two rushing) with only one interception. His ability to avoid turnovers will be huge as the squad tries to contend with the best in the country.

If the Tigers are performing to their ability, Virginia Tech will struggle to keep up. While the team has a 9-3 record, only a single victory came over an opponent that is ranked in the latest Associated Press poll (No. 25 Pittsburgh).

The Hokies have a solid team and are building for the future, but they will be overmatched in this one.

Prediction: Clemson 38, Virginia Tech 20

    

Wisconsin vs. Penn State

This is a game many will be watching because the winner has a chance to earn a playoff spot, even with two losses.

Penn State has been on a tear offensively, winning eight in a row while scoring at least 39 points in five straight games. Saquon Barkley hasn’t gotten a lot of national attention, but he might be one of the top running backs in the sport.

However, it won’t be easy to move the ball as effectively against an elite defense like Wisconsin’s. The Badgers rank third nationally with 13.7 points allowed per game, just once allowing an opponent to score more than 20 points. Ohio State scored 30, although it needed overtime to get there.

Wisconsin also has an efficient running attack behind Corey Clement, who has over 100 rushing yards in six of his last seven games.

Although the Nittany Lions might have the best single win of anyone this season, beating Ohio State, they haven’t faced anyone near that level since. Wisconsin could be a wake-up call on a neutral field as the Badgers take home the conference title.

Prediction: Wisconsin 20, Penn State 13

         

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