College Football Odds Week 11: Picks, Spread Predictions for Top 25 Games

In a week that wasn’t supposed to see much change in the college football landscape, Mississippi State decided to inject a little chaos into the College Football Playoff picture.

So heading into Week 11, when it looks like all should be quiet on the Top 25 front, the real question is who’s next?

The slate isn’t loaded with many games between ranked opponents, but as Mississippi State showed in its win over then-No. 4 Texas A&M, we are deep into conference schedules, and weird things can happen when we get into that territory.

Here’s a look at the Week 11 schedule and some predictions, along with the latest odds from Odds Shark and some games to watch that could once again shift the playoff picture.

       

Games to Watch

West Virginia at Texas

If the Big 12 is going to be represented in the College Football Playoff this season, it’s going to be represented by West Virginia.

Dirt has been shoveled on the conference’s playoff hopes pretty much since Oklahoma lost to Ohio State, and with good reason. The conference simply lacks a team that’s been able to earn national prominence. 

Oklahoma is still the most talked about team—and the only one engaged in a true Top 25 matchup this week—but it’s West Virginia that has the record and remaining schedule to make a run at the playoff, provided other one-loss teams become two-loss teams.

As it stands, the Mountaineers are among the teams with the lowest chances, according to Ed Feng’s numbers. However, they’re also the most likely to eventually topple Oklahoma, which would conceivably give them a boost:

For now, they’ll need to beat Texas in Austin this weekend to keep their slim hopes alive. 

The Longhorns come in as slight favorites after a shootout win over Texas Tech, but West Virginia is a different animal.

In a conference that’s dominated by offensive teams that only play defense as a means to rest the offense, West Virginia remains balanced. The Mountaineers are No. 1 in scoring defense and No. 2 in total defense in the conference, but they also rank third offensively in yards per play.

The Longhorns offense has been potent this season. It’s 27th in the nation in scoring. But defense has been another story. The Longhorns rank 103rd in scoring defense, giving up 33.2 points per game. 

That’s simply not good enough to give them an edge over a West Virginia team that still has plenty left to play for. 

Prediction: West Virginia 38, Texas 28

      

Auburn at Georgia

Alabama looks like a lock for the College Football Playoff, but Auburn is the SEC team that could sneak in and steal their spot.

That’s because the team that started the season off 1-2 with a six-point loss to Clemson (currently No. 3 in the country) and a 13-point loss to Texas A&M (now No. 10) has become an offensive juggernaut once again. 

Gus Malzahn has made his early-season hot seat look silly by constructing an offense that has been terrifyingly balanced, per Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports:

In #Auburn's last 5 games, QB Sean White is completing 73% and has a 6-1 TD-INT ratio and the Tigers are averaging 352 yards rushing.

— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) November 6, 2016

But last week, the Tigers struggled to put Vanderbilt away, and that’s a bit concerning. The Commodores held a 13-10 lead at halftime and did a good job of playing keep away from the Tigers, possessing the ball for 35 minutes. 

Despite two early-season losses, the Tigers aren’t completely out of the picture. A win over Alabama and an SEC title would give them a compelling case, but the margin for error is slim. 

An injury to leading rusher KamrynPettway will make this an intriguing game as well. He’s been the centerpiece for Auburn’s offense all season, but he suffered a leg injury against Vandy.

Offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee seemed optimistic that Pettway could still play since he did return to practice on Wednesday, and at this point, game prep is more mental than physical. Lashlee discussed both Pettway and quarterback Sean White, per Tom Green of AL.com:

This time of year, and it’s not just those two guys, there are a lot of guys, every team is banged up. We all are. We’re getting into Week (11) in our league and so you still have physicality things you do in practice but a lot of it is mental and trying to get your guys to the game. Knowing the game plan but fresh and as healthy as they can be each week in and week out.

A healthy Pettway and White will be necessary to cover the spread against the Bulldogs. Georgia’s season has been turbulent, but they are coming off a road win against Kentucky with Sony Michel and Nick Chubb both looking healthy. 

Prediction: Auburn 35, Georgia 24

      

USC at Washington

On a weak slate, the Pac-12 showdown between the undefeated Washington Huskies and a surging USC Trojans team is definitely the main event.

The Trojans might be the best case for SEC bias in the polls. USC—much like Auburn—got off to a rough start, going 1-3. However, since switching to freshman quarterback Sam Darnold, the Trojans have ripped off six straight wins going into this game. 

But you won’t find them in either the AP or Coaches’ poll, prompting Dan Wolken of USA Today to plead that these voters actually watch the games:

The refusal of AP and Coaches poll voters to acknowledge that USC is now a top-25 team is baffling. WATCH THE GAMES

— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) November 6, 2016

Fortunately, the playoff committee seems to understand that USC isn’t the same team it was at the beginning of the season. It ranked the Trojans as the No. 20 team in the nation, which seems about right. 

That means this is a big opportunity for the Huskies to prove to the committee that they deserve their playoff spot. After being left out last week, Washington moved into the potential playoff field with the A&M loss. But the Huskies need to continue winning so the committee isn’t tempted to let another one-loss team jump them. 

Ultimately, the Huskies should be able to do just that on Saturday.

Darnold is good, but Washington quarterback Jake Browning has been even better. 

The sophomore is the quintessential Chris Petersen quarterback. He has an incredible 34 touchdowns to just three interceptions while completing 67.7 percent of his passes. His ability to constantly make good decisions and throw with accuracy have him joining the Heisman conversation. 

With an opportunity to shine against a USC secondary that is only ninth in the Pac-12 in interceptions and seventh in opponent passer rating, Browning should make his case even stronger as Washington shows it is one of the elite teams in college football this year. 

Prediction: Washington 31, USC 17