Army hasn’t beaten Notre Dame on a football field since 1958, losing the last 14 meetings in a row. But the Black Knights have a legitimate shot at snapping that streak when they battle the Fighting Irish on Saturday afternoon on a neutral field at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
Point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as 11.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.0-27.0 Black Knights (College football picks on every game)
Why the Army Black Knights can cover the spread
With five victories Army has already assured itself of its most wins in a season since 2010. Two weeks ago the Knights pulled off a 21-13 upset of Wake Forest, but last week they came up short in a rivalry battle with Air Force 31-12.
The Knights only trailed the Falcons at the half last week 10-6, and 17-12 late into the third quarter, but gave up the last 14 points of the game. Army had chances to keep the game closer, but twice threw interceptions inside the Air Force red zone.
Actually, until last week, the Knights had outgained and outrushed every opponent this season.
Army stands at 5-4 on the season, but because one of those wins came against non-FBS competition the Knights need two wins in their last three games to make a bowl.
Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread
Notre Dame suffered another tough loss last week, about its fifth of this season, falling to Navy in Jacksonville 28-27. The Irish grabbed an early 7-0 lead on a DeShone Kizer-to-Torii Hunter touchdown connection, and held a 24-21 advantage into the fourth quarter. But the Notre Dame defense just couldn’t come up with stops when it needed to, allowing the Midshipmen to take the lead with a 75-yard touchdown drive, then run off the last seven minutes on the clock.
On the day the Irish outgained Navy 370-368, as Kizer threw for 223 yards and three touchdowns, without an interception. Notre Dame has actually outgained six of its last eight opponents; it’s also lost four games by a total of 14 points during that span.
Smart pick
This is the biggest regular-season game for Army, outside of the annual battle with Navy, in many seasons. And that Notre Dame defense just allowed the Midshipmen to rush for 320 yards last week. The smart money here rides with the Knights.
Betting trends
Notre Dame is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home against teams with winning records.
The total has gone UNDER in eight of Army’s last 11 games.
Army is 0-4 ATS in its last four games in November.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
