The Alabama Crimson Tide are 5-0 against the Florida Gators—4-1 against the spread—since Tim Tebow directed the Gators to an SEC Championship Game victory over the Crimson Tide eight years ago.
But Tebow won’t be in uniform this Saturday when Alabama shoots for a sixth straight victory over Florida, and a third straight conference title, in this year’s SEC Championship Game on a neutral field at the Georgia Dome.
Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 21.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 42.1-19.5 Crimson Tide (College football picks on every game)
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread
The Crimson Tide reached 12-0 on the season and extended their winning streak to 24 straight games with a 30-12 Iron Bowl victory over Auburn last week. Alabama spotted the Tigers an early field goal, but the Crimson Tide then used a 27-6 run to take over, although it came up a field goal short of covering as a 20-point favorite.
That final score is almost misleading, considering the Crimson Tide outgained Auburn in terms of yardage (501-182) and held a 40-20 time of possession advantage. But a pair of Jalen Hurts interceptions—he also accounted for 323 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns—led directly to six Tigers points, just enough to cost them the cash.
The Tide may face a huge spread for this conference title contest, but they’ve already won seven games this season by 28 points or more.
Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread
Florida had won two games in a row, including that upset of LSU in Baton Rouge a couple weeks ago, but suffered a letdown and lost last week at Florida State 31-13. The Gators fell down to the Seminoles 10-0 in the second quarter and pulled to within 10-6 midway through the third, but Florida faded from there, falling to their in-state rivals for the fourth season in a row.
Florida actually drove the opening kickoff to the FSU two-yard line but instead of kicking a short field goal, the Gators came up empty on a fourth-down pass. The Gators lost a fumble on their next possession, leading to a Seminoles touchdown and setting the tone for the day.
Two weeks ago Florida won at LSU 16-10 to clinch a second straight SEC East title. So the Gators defense has held eight opponents this year to 14 points or less.
Smart pick
Alabama could probably lose this game and still make the College Football Playoff, but that’s not going to happen. The only thing that really matters is the final margin. The Tide won this championship game matchup last year 29-15, but Florida covered at plus-16. If the Gators can come up with a couple of big plays, perhaps a turnover or two and put 17 points on the board, they’ll cover this spread too at online betting sites.
Betting trends
Alabama is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against Florida.
The total has gone over in Alabama’s last three games against Florida.
Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.
All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the Odds Shark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
