5 likely outcomes from the Can-Am 500 at Phoenix

While there is definitely a chance for a lot of chaos to happen this weekend in the final Sprint Cup Chase elimination race at Phoenix International Raceway, there are a few things that we can expect to happen based on history and probability.

Check out five likely outcomes that will probably occur this weekend at Phoenix:

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In the spring all five cautions came because of blown tires. With NASCAR bringing back the same tire and aero package this weekend, it’s most likely that a few drivers will suffer from pushing too hard and losing a tire.

If one of the six drivers vying for a Chase spot lose a tire early, it could make the cutoff picture less crowded. None of the Chase drivers suffered an issue in the spring, but tire trouble is an equal opportunity offender.

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Much like Martinsville two weeks, the Phoenix pit road is a bit tight and has a few blind spots with part of the pit lane going into Turn 1. The difficulty of navigating that can lead to mistakes for drivers and crews.

There’s also the pit strategy that will come into play, similarly to how it did last week at Texas. Some teams may elect to take two tires, fuel only, or go for a full four-tire pit stop. Those decisions and how the cautions fall will play a huge role.

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With three JGR cars in the field and two Stewart-Haas Racing teammates fighting for two spots in the Championship 4, it’s highly likely that someone will get rubbed the wrong way by their teammate's actions in the final laps at Phoenix on Sunday.

Also, Logano’s Team Penske teammate Brad Keselowski really wants to get another win before the season ends. He could end up in a position where his actions have a major outcome on his teammate advancing to the championship race.  

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When you simply do the math, it comes down to Harvick and Joey Logano as the two main obstacles standing in the way of Joe Gibbs Racing advancing one or two more drivers into the Championship 4 at Homestead.

Harvick could easily win and take a spot and it wouldn’t be unlikely for Logano to post a good finish and hold off the three JGR drivers he’s battling in points. With that said, it’d be highly unexpected for Carl Edwards to be the only Toyota vying for the championship.

This has been the major storyline surrounding the Round of 8 in the Chase after Harvick created a deficit for himself at Martinsville. His dominance in the desert has been remarkable with five wins in the past six races and eight total Phoenix wins.

He’s also found a way to win and advance with his back against the wall every time he’s had to in the first three seasons of the Chase elimination format.

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