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Since becoming Big 12 rivals the Kansas State Wildcats are 3-2 both straight up and against the spread in the series with the TCU Horned Frogs, including a dominating victory last year in Fort Worth. But the Wildcats will play as home ‘dogs when they host the Frogs on Saturday afternoon.
College football point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 38.2-32.3 Wildcats (College football picks on every game)
Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread
TCU reached 5-0 on the season with a 31-24 win over West Virginia last week. The Frogs spotted the Mountaineers an early field goal, then scored the game’s next 17 points. They let West Virginia tie the score at 17-17 and 24-24 but took the lead for good on a short, tough Kenny Hill touchdown run with three minutes to go, then secured the victory with a defensive stop and a first down.
On the day TCU outrushed the Mountaineers 170-142 and won the turnover battle 2-0, converting both takeaways directly into touchdowns.
The Frogs have now outrushed each of their five opponents this season by a per-game average of 220-104, and that’s usually a good way to win a game and cover a spread.
Why the Kansas State Wildcats can cover the spread
The Wildcats are looking to bounce back from a 40-34 double-overtime loss at Texas last week. Kansas State led the Longhorns 10-0 early and 27-24 late but gave up a game-tying field goal with a-minute-and-a-half to go. They then lost when kicker Matthew McCrane bounced a field goal off an upright in the top of the second OT, then allowed a short Chris Warren touchdown run.
On the day the Wildcats got outgained by Texas by 150 yards, and yet they still almost won the game.
Two weeks ago Kansas State beat Baylor 33-20, outrushing the Bears by a margin of 225-84. So the Wildcats have outrushed three of their last four foes.
TCU is a hot pick at the moment, but that’s often not a good thing. Also, the Frogs defense just gave up 500 yards of offense to West Virginia last week. Meanwhile, Kansas State lost its starting quarterback last week, but sophomore backup Alex Delton looked good, running the ball 12 times for 79 yards and two touchdowns. Smart money here probably lies with the home ‘dogs.
College football betting trends
The total has gone over in three of TCU’s last four games against Kansas State.
Kansas State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games at home against teams with winning records.
TCU is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games against its conference.
All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.